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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions 13 July, 2010

Decisions are made by people all day, and every day. A key question for marketers then becomes "How can we influence those decisions in our favor?" Interestingly, the answer is more defined than one might think. There is a pattern that most people follow when making decisions. The steps are outlined below.

1. Problem recognition - This is caused by seeing a difference in reality and ideal. A marketing message can cause a customer to recognize this difference.
2. Information search - Consumers identify solutions based on memories or the external environment. Marketing communicates information about products in hopes of leaving the consumer with good memories of it's product.
3. Evaluation of alternatives - Consumers narrow down solutions based on what they like, as well as what is feasible. Marketing attempts to get consumers to use evaluative criteria that is in their favor.
4. Product choice - Consumers use heuristics to make a final decision. Marketing attempts to communicate which heuristics are important. Examples are price equals quality, brand loyalty, and country of origin matters.
5. Post-purchase evaluation - Consumers decide if the decision they made was a good one. They compare what they received with a standard of what they thought they would receive. This has a large effect on how the consumer perceives that company, along with the company's brand and products.

Consumer's decisions in this model can be influenced by a number of factors.
1. Perception: Exposure, Attention, and Interpretation of marketing and critic messages.
2. Learning: Associating similar products, having consequences, receiving bundled stimulus, and observing others.
3. Motivation: Consumers divide needs into categories based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs (survival, safety, belonging, confidence, self-fulfillment). Originally it was thought that a lower level needed to be satisfied before higher levels, but in practice this is not always the case.

Figure 1 - Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Personality traits also affect decisions:
Having the desire to try new things, own products, interact socially, and think about things affect what a consumer buys. Self confidence is also a big personality determinant.

Age, family life cycle, psychographics (grouping people depending on activities, interests, and opinions [AIOs]), arousal, pleasure, time, culture, social class, group think, opinion leaders, sex roles, and product communities all influence a consumer's decisions.

Another determinant is self concept. Self concept is the set of beliefs a person holds about themselves (attributes and abilities). People may have different self concepts at different times depending on what situation they are in and who they are with. This is important because it means that marketing must make sure the correct self concept is active when marketing communications are made.

The ideal self seems to be more influential than the actual self when dealing with social products. When dealing with functional products, actual self seems to take precedence.

This model is indeed more structured that meets the eye, and marketers can use it to their advantage.

Research & Observing Consumers

Observing consumers may be the most important part of marketing there is. Without knowing the consumer, as well as their needs and thoughts, it is impossible to provide for them. It won't matter what price is set or how innovative a product is. It won't matter where it can be found or how it's existence is communicated. If a product does not satisfy a need, it won't be purchased.

Market Demand
To get a better idea of profitability when looking at primary and secondary market research data you can observe the rate of adoption that is commonly associated with industry products:


Calculating demand for market potential and sales estimates can be further refined by using one of the following example methods:
1 - total market demand = number of buyers X quantity purchased b average buyer per year X price of average unit
2 - total number of households in target region X those who can use it X those who can purchase it X etc.


Market Research
Primary data - information gathered for a specific purpose
Secondary data - information previously collected for another purpose

Both primary and secondary data must be relevant, current, accurate, and impartial.

This data can be gathered via numerous methods, most of which are obvious:
observation
survey
experiment
mail telephone
personal
online
sampling group, size, procedure (random, random from split up groups, convenience, judgment, quota)
questionnaire
instruments


There are several ways to observe consumers and collect their thoughts. Interviews, focus groups, surveys, previously created documentation, and simply watching them are the main ways. Each of these methods will work to a degree, but it is usually a time and cost constraint on the observer that limits which methods will be used and to what degree they can be used.

Interviews are usually the best observation method, but also have the highest cost. Surveys are one of the easiest and lowest cost methods, but also one of the least effective. This is because the effectiveness of gaining consumer insights is usually proportional to the relationship that exists between the consumer and the observer. Observers and consumers with stronger relationships tend to have discussions where more is disclosed. More disclosure equates to more completeness. The more experienced the observer is, the less formal and structured the set of questions will be. Usually, it’s considered good practice to ask very open ended questions, funneling down to specific questions only when more detail or clarification is needed. It’s also important to not force the ordering of questions because this invites agendas and can be sensed.

The observer’s job is primarily to listen, but also to record non verbal communication. All verbal communication should be taken care of by an audio recording or video recording if necessary. After the observing process is done, the observer should record their feelings and views. The purpose of consumer observation and interviewing is to generate ideas, check assumptions, form a thesis, find information, and seek opinions. By combining both what is conveyed by those being observed as well as the observer, a more complete picture can be painted.

A few more details about interviews and observing : Watch your own reactions and voice inflections to avoid biasing the interview. Interview 10-15 people; focus groups should be 4-5 for small groups or 6-12 for larger groups. Avoid asking why questions. Address terms of confidentiality and make sure that all the interviewer’s questions are answered. Use an interview discussion guide (IDG). An IDG helps organize topics and provides a funnel mechanism to make sure the interviewer is aware of what general questions should be asked, what specific questions are possible, and what transitions should be used.

Example IDG

As long as you have a good sample size and your sample reflects the needed demographic, following the observation guidelines expressed above will allow you to gain insights that are not only impressive and important, but ones that are correct as well.

The Numbers in a Business Trend 22 June, 2010

Statistics is a subject taught, and usually required in business schools. What’s the reason? It helps us see not only the trends in Business, but what parts of those trends are statistically significant. Regression analysis lets us see what matters in determining costs and prices, and is usually run in conjunction with historical data. In order to explain regression analysis, we need to define a few things:

Median: The middle value in an ordered set of numbers that separates the lower half from the higher half.

Mean: The numeric average of a set of numbers.

Mode: The numeric value in a set of numbers that occurs most frequently.

Variance: The dispersion of numbers in a set around the mean.

Standard Deviation: The variance of a set of numbers whose unit of measurement is the same as those of the number set.

CV (Coefficient of Variation): A ratio of standard deviation to the mean.

R2 (Coefficient of Determination): The ratio of explained variance to total variance.

Standard Error: A measure of fluctuation from one sample statistic to another.

Normal Distribution (standard normal): A bell curved graph used to describe number sets with complete data or a high sample size.

Student’s Distribution (t-distribution): A bell curved graph used to describe number sets when the sample size is small.

Manual Regression: Using a number set to generate a line equation that resembles the trend of the data.

T-Score: An indication of correctness of a hypothesis. This is sometimes called the t-stat.

P-Value: A value that shows the significance of a factor.

Degrees of Freedom: The variability in the curve of a statistic. Generally this equals n-(k+1) where n is the sample size and k is the number of independent variables.

T-Table: A lookup table where one axis represents degrees of freedom and the other axis represents the probability. A T-Score is found where the correct column and row intersect.

Hypothesis Testing: First, you must choose both a hypothesis and an inverse of the hypothesis, such that you can prove one of them by choosing the correct probability when using the T-Table. A null hypothesis (the opposite of what you want to prove) and an alternative hypothesis (what you want to prove) are chosen as equality equations. The equality of the null and alternative hypotheses determines what kind of tail test to use in the lookup table. If the equality symbol used in the alternative hypothesis is a '>', it is a right tailed test. If it is a '<', you have a left-tailed test. If it is neither, you have a two-tailed test. A null hypothesis is generally used for the test because of historical significance in the philosophy of math as well as the innocent until proven guilty axiom.

The following example deals with salaries. If a study claims that programmers make $100,000/year, but you think they make more, H1(The alternative hypothesis) is x > 100,000. The null hypothesis would then be H0(the notation for a null hypothesis): x <= 100,000. The alternative and null hypothesizes are always compliments (opposites) of each other, and the alternative hypothesis (what you are trying to prove) should be stated first.

After comparing data sets using the equations that follow, and comparing the t-stat to the critical value found in the T-Table lookup, we'll have enough information to determine what is correct. Using the standard deviation, t-score, and our data set, we have enough data to make a conclusion.

The significance of the right, left, or two tailed choice is that anything that falls respectively to the right, left or both of the critical regions denoted by the T-Table lookup number equates to rejecting H0, and accepting H1.

Equations:

That's the theory. Most people will simply use Excel or some other program to run all the calculations automatically. However, understanding what is going on, and how to correctly interpret what Excel tells you is much easier if you understand that theory.

Using Excel’s Data Analysis package, you can select columns to include in a regression, at which point you’ll get a nice little table like the following:

So, what does this mean? Well, the point of a regression analysis is to create a fitted line to the scattered data points that we have. The key here is that we want to find a relationship between x (the numbers that drive our end result) and y (our end result) in our plots. The bottom line is: the more significant the variables are, the bigger the slope of the line will be. This also means that the if the relationship is small, the slope of the line will be small. We could say that the closer to 0 the slope is, the less significant that slope is. Because we are trying to prove that something is significant and that the slope is not 0, we can use the following hypothesis. H0: x =0, H1: x!=0, where x is the slope of the regression line. We can take our t-statistic (t) equation from above and see if the slope is statistically significant.

Let's use an example that uses Excel's linear regression to preform a hypothesis test. Using a setup as shown in the screenshot above, Excel gives us a t-stat. We must now use a t-table (google it if you don't have a complete one) to compare the t-stat given by excel to what probability we want. Usually 95% is the standard probability used. Our df (degrees of freedom) is 3. We get this from using the df definition given above, and the data from the screenshot (showing an example of material cost effect on overall cost) : n-(k+1) -> 8-(4+1) -> 3. The T-Table score is 2.353. Excel says our t-stat is .62 for materials. Because .62 is not > 2.353, we do not reject H0, and conclude that the material cost is not significant in the overall cost!

A couple of important notes now that we have seen how hypothesis testing works:
  • Rejection does not mean something is false, it means that it is not reasonable.
  • Accepting does not mean something is true, it means it is reasonable.
  • Some people use a p-value rule: Reject H0 if p <>
  • Don't just believe the output. Always make sure the numbers make sense.

Presenting on strategy or strategically presenting? 04 May, 2010

Here's a few things I've learned in the last week on presenting.

The executive summary.
Always prepare and provide an audience with an executive summary of what you are going to present. Executive summaries are not just for executives. They are meant to keep the attention of the audience as well as help them get back on track if they get lost. They should be about 10% as long as either your presentation, or your research document. They help, and there is no real downside to having them. Many times it even helps to informally tell attendees about your findings. This can lower the wow factor of a presentation, but it can also make sure you didn't miss a critical piece of information.

Be open, but don't apologize.
If you've put in the time and effort required to make a presentation worth listening to, then you should assume that your information is at least as good as what anyone else has. You should be the immediate authority on the subject. Focus on facts and avoid words like could, might, and possibly. If there is something you missed, thank those who brought up the point. If the missed information is not critical to your point, move on.

Clutter is bad.
Having a large sum of information and facts to back up a point can be great if it's in the right place. A summary and presentation of a point should be just that. State the most important aspects of what it is and why it matters, then move on. If you do have a slide in a presentation that has a few parts to it, make sure you list out the parts. You don't want a long list, but if you don't have any list and start rambling off several items that are not written anywhere that the audience can see, they'll get lost.

References.
Detailed references are great, if they're in the right place. Make sure you have everything documented, but when presenting, don't make the references your focus. Your focus should be the content of the facts and the 'so what?' factor. Try using phrases such as 'research shows.' If someone does ask for proof or where you found the information, then bring up more detailed references.

The fix.
If you present problems, or identify areas where improvement is needed, you need to specify a plan of action for resolving them.

Talking and transitions.
Unless you are pointing out specific things in a visual aid, you should be looking at your audience. You also need to make sure that when addressing those listening, that there is a common thread throughout your presentation and transitions are included. Relating ideas to each other as well as to the audience will help the audience stay interested.

These aren't items from lists that I've come across. This is the feedback that I received after presenting a school project to executives.

Got strategy? 27 April, 2010

Well, do you? I suppose the harder question is defining what strategy actually is. Once that's done, answering the question "Got strategy?" will probably be equivalent to answering the question "Are you prepared for how long you want to last?" Many people think it's just a synonym for planning. Some think it is the way you do something, and others have no idea. There are a few definitions of strategy. All are correct, but each offers its own perspective:

Definitions
  • How you compete
  • Using and improving your competitive advantage
  • A single, detailed plan that's based off of a company's goals and competitive advantages

Before I go further, I should address some things to avoid when thinking about strategy. You can't predict the future, you can't detach planning and implementation, you can't be too formalized, and you must finish a strategy before it becomes obsolete.

There are strong advocates (Mintzberg) of informal emergent strategy who let it flow more than they guide it, and there are more formal methods like Porter's generic strategies. Although many successful strategies have emerged without much planning, having a concrete plan will help find holes as well as ensure actual implementation.

Strategy can be broken down into four distinct levels (Corporate, Global, Business, and Functional). The following describes the details of each.

Corporate Strategy
  • Answers the question "What value should be created in what industry?"
  • This can include the acquisition or divestment of other companies.

Global Strategy
  • Shows how to gain advantages over/with competition by competing internationally.
  • Helps identify strengths and weaknesses of international competition.
Porter created a theory of "Competitive Advantage of Nations" that is described by the following diagram. It introduces relationships between global factors that must be synchronized to gain global advantages.

Diamond of National Advantage
It prompts questions like:
  • Are suppliers global?
  • What are demand differences in different countries?
  • Can capabilities and resources be developed and used more effectively in other countries?
  • How does a specific international culture affect competition?
Business Strategy
This is the business model. A business model answers the following questions:
  • What does a customer want?
  • Who is the customer?
  • How are the wants satisfied?
Examples of business models include the following:
  • Razor and razor blades (cheap upfront costs, higher upkeep costs)
  • Franchise
  • Direct sales (no fixed locations, market directly to customers)
  • MLM (multi-level marketing)
  • Service model
  • Subscription model
  • Loyalty based business (iteratively better deals, or continuous improvements)

Functional Strategy
This is all about efficiency. By efficiency, I mean the ratio of required inputs to desired outputs. Some major areas where levels of efficiency can exist are:
  • Economies of scale
  • Learning in the organization
  • Project selection
  • Processes
Feedback
Finally, it is extremely important to acquire feedback from all strategic levels, and send it back to the top. This is how missions, visions, values, and goals can be refined and become even better inputs to new corporate, global, business, and functional strategy.

Analyzing Environmental Information

Facts and information are necessary resources when making decisions and setting a direction. How does one acquire the facts? A common thread is to look at both external and internal environments. Interestingly enough, even though external factors seem like they would be much more expansive, I believe they can be summarized without too much trouble.

Internal analysis identifies distinctive competencies that an organization has. Distinct competencies are broken up into two categories:
  • Capabilities
  • Resources & the ability to use them

These competency types determine:
  • The value a customer is getting
  • The price the customer will pay
  • The price of the value creation

The resulting internal analysis helps determine whether an organization should adapt to the external environment, or change the external environment. There are Macro and Micro external environments. The macro environment is comprised of social, legal, environmental, political, and technological factors. This is known as a SLEPT analysis, although other acronyms like PEST, PESTEL, STEEPEL, and others exist. Picking one of these acronyms is usually sufficient because as it is, an issue could fit into more than one bucket (eg. social and environmental). The important thing is not what buckets you use or where the items go; It's that you see all the items.

A SLEPT Example

The micro environment is comprised of a framework coined by Michael Porter from the Harvard School of Business. It's called Porter's 5 Forces. Porter believes that the micro external environment is driven by a small number of critical determinants which he refers to as forces. These forces include the threat of new entrants, current rivals, the power of suppliers, the power of buyers, and the threat of substitutes. Many people have added to this list government policy and compliment products.

Porter's 5 (sometimes 6) Forces

I think the definitions and short descriptions given of macro and micro analysis are sufficient to get started with the collection of facts.

A Porter's Forces Example

The internal environment however, is a little more complex and harder to explain. There are several methods that include a resource based view, functional based view, building blocks of competitive advantage, value chain, and Hamel and Prahalad's competency matrix. All of these except two are different.

These are not the only methods. Other ways to evaluate environments include looking at the industry's maturity in its life cycle and growth curves for a type of product. Given a reasonably finite amount of time however, only certain evaluation techniques can be used to make decisions and plan. If too much time is taken, opportunities will pass by and threats will overwhelm. Let us now look at these evaluation techniques in detail.

The value chain's purpose is to analyze how hand-offs between functions or resources are handled and what interactions take place between them. Specifically, the value chain's purpose is to make sure each hand-off actually adds some sort of value to the overall process.


The Value Chain

H&P's Matrix is really just four quadrants with one axis being old to new markets, and the other axis being old to new products. It is meant to determine what kind of innovation is taking place.

The H&P Competency Matrix

The resource based view and functional based view has you list out either all the resources or all the functions and state whether each are valuable, rare, imitable, or fit the organization (VRIO).

The Resource Based View (RBV)

The Functional View

The building blocks of competitive advantage method has you state whether efficiency, quality, innovation, and response to customers fits in a low-cost, differentiation, niche low-cost, niche differentiation, or hybrid (best value) category. This is based on Porter's generic strategies. The generic strategies introduced by Porter attempt to identify a few main areas in which a company can decide to compete in how they positions products and services to the customer.

Porter's Generic Strategies


The building blocks method helps identify which of Porter's generic strategies an organization is currently aligned with by looking at several concrete operational areas (Efficiency, Quality, Customer Responsiveness, and Innovation).

The Building Blocks View

So, as you can see, even though the external environment may be much larger than the internal, the internal seems to be more complex to analyze. I believe this is because most of the time you can only watch the external environment, while you have the opportunity to drastically change the internal environment.

That is how you get the facts. We still however, must turn to making those facts useful. This takes the form of two popular frameworks: SWOT and scanning.

SWOT(Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) looks at the external facts to determine threats and opportunities. It then looks at internal facts to identify strengths and weaknesses. You then have several options for the four lists you just made. You can compare strengths to weaknesses and opportunities, weaknesses to opportunities and threats, etc. One option is to match strengths to opportunities so you know what you should emphasize. Another option is converting weaknesses and threats into strengths and opportunities, but this usually means you're focusing on playing catchup to the competition. Creating a SWOT is really where you begin to see some lines created as to what should be focused on, and what should be filed away for later.

Scanning is simpler and less formal. It involves finding and ranking opportunistic areas by asking, surveying, and creating hypotheses. You then work backwards, finding proof to back up your ideas.

Once areas that require focus have been identified, either creating an in-depth implementation plan, or using scenario analysis (evaluating multiple alternatives) are the next steps. This is where the best strategy is discovered and its implementation becomes the focus.

These ways of getting the facts have evolved from faculty, textbooks, trends, and experience. They're really the best way to do it.

Ethics & Corporate Social Responsibility 22 April, 2010

So, what exactly does it mean to be ethical? Shouldn't the answer be easy? Many people assume that knowing what is right is the easy part, and it's the implementation that comes at a higher cost. Obeying the law is pretty obvious. I'm going to say that agreeing on what is right is the difficult task. Everyone has their own definition of right and wrong and people can put everything into these categories. The problem exists because everything they put in the 'right' category is what they believe to be ethical, and although there may be a universal standard, not everyone accepts it. Honesty and integrity are fairly standard, but creativeness is something that can walk a fine line.

So what does this mean for a business? Here are my thoughts. The purpose of business is to cater to society's wants. But what is a business without uniqueness? A business generally has a mission and set of values that set them apart, even if they aren't explicit. These values denote the moral obligations that it has, and the values should act as helps to make decisions when no explicit policy exists. Now, there are some responsibilities that happen as a side effect of running the business like sustainability, licenses to operate, and reputation, but these are usually just side effects. The moral obligations derived from a company's values are the only things the company will still pursue in difficult times. However, Peter Drucker has said that it is irresponsible to promote a noble motive that is beyond what is economically feasible for a company. Martyrdom can only happen once, and it is often better to steadily create value for society than to make one single and final attempt at perfect ideology.

There are right vs. right decisions where there are two competing ethical needs, but choosing one forces you to ignore the other. Les Miserables is a case in point. Another example is differences in bribes. Is bribing to sway decisions for personal gain any different than bribing to sway decisions to be what they ethically should be?

I suggest that making sure ethics are addressed on all issues (a go/no-go analysis for a project for example) can remind everyone that it does matter. People would be prepared to make the correct decision if a gray area alternative ever arose.

Although profit is thought to be the major motivation for organizational action, the value provided to customers is a far better indicator of future success and profits. This value to customers should not include corporate social responsibility (CSR) if its costs are high and the CSR does not directly apply to the industry or area of expertise for the company. Usually it is best to CSR that is within a company's competency domain. In the end, this is actually beneficial to a company because it keeps them from having to scramble later on should regulations be put in place to force the behavior.

Bowen, Carrol, et. al may have said it best: A company should act like a good citizen.